Ted Cruz has knelt before Zod. I hope Hillary Clinton spends the next eight years literally liquidating the Kulaks, because there is literally no one in America who deserves to stop her. I give up on this country. This is my final blog post. Goodbye everyone.
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Here is my elaboration on the work I mentioned here.
Let’s begin by downloading historical monthly official unemployment rates according to the St Louis Fed website. We’ll be using the series UNRATE, M0892AUSM156SNBR, M0892BUSM156SNBR, and M0892CUSM156NNBR. The first thing we want to do is turn these into a single, monthly series. To begin with, we will take M0892AUSM156SNBR for granted in the early part of the data. Subsequently, when it overlaps with M0892BUSM156SNBR, we will favor that latter series. During the first month of the latter, the two series agree, but they diverge thereafter. It’s not clear why, but M0892BUSM156SNBR seems more realistic. Finally, we have the issue that no seasonally adjusted series covers the year 1947. M0892CUSM156NNBR covers that year, but is full of seasonal noise. Fortunately, M0892CUSM156NNBR overlaps with UNRATE, so it is possible to estimate a seasonal cycle in M0892CUSM156NNBR and remove it. By removing the estimated average monthly differences, I can bridge the gap between the series. Now, using the series GPDIA and GDP data, I can find out what portion of spending in each year, back to 1929, was investment. This is significant because during normal times, there seems to be an inverse relationship between changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in the “investment rate.” As it turns out, this works fairly well through the entire period, except for one glaring discrepancy:
Four years, from 1942-1945 inclusive, fall off the general pattern of this relationship. Why? Simple. During World War II, the forcible removal by conscription of ten million able bodied young men (I assume they would have been young men?) from the labor force into the armed forces, the volunteering of many more who wished to avoid the high likelihood of assignment to infantry associated with the draft, the movement of people into draft exempt war production industries, all naturally led to a reduction in the official unemployment rate. To quote Robert Higgs:
Between 1940 and 1944 unemployment fell by either 7.45 million (official measure) or 4.62 million (Darby measure), while the armed forces increased by 10.87 million. Even if one views eliminating civilian unemployment as tantamount to producing prosperity, one must recognize that placing either 146 or 235 persons (depending on the unemployment concept used) in the armed forces to gain a reduction of 100 persons in civilian unemployment was a grotesque way to achieve prosperity, even if a job were a job.
This is the kind of crap that these people resort to when they are desperate.
Oh, and FAU is really eating up all my time. I gotta get to a project, now that I think of it.
Of course, the pot is calling the kettle….wait, no, I can’t say that. That would be unintentionally racist. So let me rephrase the old saying. The President is calling the “artist” a Jackass. There.
I’ve been caught up with some crazy stuff lately. So apparently in the crazy left wing world all is not well. You see while they march forward with their plan to centrally plan medical care, it turns out that more people identify themselves as conservative than any other group. Well, whatever, it doesn’t matter because we are heading for so much crazy stuff at this point it doesn’t matter. Um, hm, was that circular reasoning? Whatever.
So what else is new? Obama has gone to lecture the doctors. He has so much to teach them about medicine you see.
Election controversy…and this time it has nothing to do with your humble correspondent’s stupid neighbors.
North Korean is batshit crazy. What else is new?
Oh all the world is a crazy crazy mess. Enjoy.