It’s getting cold in here

One of the things that follows from a stronger role of the Sun in climate change than we presently think (and a smaller role for CO2) is that warming should be slowing down and perhaps even reversing, due to declining solar activity. Well, becuase of the heat capacity of the oceans, it takes a while, but we are finally seeing very good signs of a definite slowing! Okay, I don’t want to get overly enthusiastic. But I figured I’d get in on the fun! The latest data are in, and there is still no warming trend in the last ten years of the satellite data! Indeed, as Lubos Motl of the Reference Frame observes, the data rank 2007 as the coldest year this century, and the 9th warmest “ever”.

But what about the US, you know, where our hottest year ever is 1934? Well, if you look at the recent sattelite data from the lower forty eight, you can see it, for sure! It’s cooling!

The sattelite temperatures of the lower fourty eight states in the last ten years

If you use the same data he links to you’ll get the same trend (but the numbers will be different due to me grafting the satellite data onto the surface station record I’ll show you in a minute!)

There isn’t a global warming in the US anyway. Think that’s why the US has “Category 5 denial” as Al Gore says?

US surface record 1880 to 1979, Sattelite data there after

That’s a graph of US temperature anomalies since 1880. Others may show you a different looking one, but mine is better becuase it has the satellite data for the last 30 years or so. As you can see, if there’s a trend (okay, I know there is!) It is a trend that John Brignell taught me to ignore “If you can’t see it, it ain’t there!”.

EDIT: Though it’s against my policy, I will edit to add this, more good, clean, cherry picking fun! Here’s my data from the US in the last 77 years:

Us last 77

To be fair, the cooling in the US is far less statistically significant than that around the world. But then, so is the warming!

So, why is it that CO2 goes up and up and up, but there isn’t any warming since 1998? Well this is consistent with two hypotheses, both of which I think have merit, and which are not mutually exclusive. The first is that solar activity is the main cause of global warming, and the second is that El Nino and La Nina cause warming and cooling, respectively. Certainly, it seems that the monotonic rise of CO2 can’t explain everything, after all!

EDIT AGAIN: Failing to predict the lowly status of this year record wise, the Hadley Centre predicts that 2008 will be in the top ten. Which is nice for them, but not very ambitious, becuase they’ve deliberately worded it so that it is next to impossible for them to be wrong:



Filed under Klimacht

6 responses to “It’s getting cold in here

  1. Tom T

    If c02 causes warming and the US is the biggest emitter of co2 then why is it cooling here faster than the rest of the world?

  2. timetochooseagain

    Well, Tom, technically that’s becuase the CO2 is supposed to be “well mixed” that is, at about the same level around the world. Sorry about your comment being held up, I had the settings messed up. I’m going to fix it. But basically, as you know, there isn’t much warming (indeed, no warming) in the whole world in the last decade or so.

  3. carlwolk

    Hey good work, though I’d be careful about putting too much emphasis on it.
    Check out my post on the subject here:

  4. timetochooseagain

    carlwolk-thanks, both for the complement and the warning- but I wasn’t really trying to make a point-except perhaps that trends depend on end points-and the bias of the person looking for the trend! Your analysis is quite interesting, to- in my opinion, Global Warming probably hasn’t “stopped” (at least permanently) but I think that the predictions of large warming in the future are being shown to be increasingly unrealistic-but this is by no means proven. 😉

  5. carlwolk

    Post on the under-read blog, Niche Modeling:
    He talks about a bunch of climate metrics that have recently stabilized. After reading the post, does it remind you of Miskolczi, much? Speaking of him, I’m assuming you’ve heard the hysteria about his paper. What do you think about it?

  6. timetochooseagain

    It is certainly interesting, and worth keeping an eye on these metrics to see if the stay stabilized. I actually haven’t paid much attention to Miskolczi’s paper, though it sounds interesting. I have heard of some work people are doing on it, and I’m waiting to see if it pans out-or falls flat. I would stick my neck out and bet this is just a “fluctuation”. But, I would also bet that warming over the next century will at most be modest, and not harmful. Probably under 2 degrees. My basis for this is mainly linear extrapolation, like what was done here: