One of the things that follows from a stronger role of the Sun in climate change than we presently think (and a smaller role for CO2) is that warming should be slowing down and perhaps even reversing, due to declining solar activity. Well, becuase of the heat capacity of the oceans, it takes a while, but we are finally seeing very good signs of a definite slowing! Okay, I don’t want to get overly enthusiastic. But I figured I’d get in on the fun! The latest data are in, and there is still no warming trend in the last ten years of the satellite data! Indeed, as Lubos Motl of the Reference Frame observes, the data rank 2007 as the coldest year this century, and the 9th warmest “ever”.
But what about the US, you know, where our hottest year ever is 1934? Well, if you look at the recent sattelite data from the lower forty eight, you can see it, for sure! It’s cooling!
If you use the same data he links to you’ll get the same trend (but the numbers will be different due to me grafting the satellite data onto the surface station record I’ll show you in a minute!)
There isn’t a global warming in the US anyway. Think that’s why the US has “Category 5 denial” as Al Gore says?
That’s a graph of US temperature anomalies since 1880. Others may show you a different looking one, but mine is better becuase it has the satellite data for the last 30 years or so. As you can see, if there’s a trend (okay, I know there is!) It is a trend that John Brignell taught me to ignore “If you can’t see it, it ain’t there!”.
EDIT: Though it’s against my policy, I will edit to add this, more good, clean, cherry picking fun! Here’s my data from the US in the last 77 years:
To be fair, the cooling in the US is far less statistically significant than that around the world. But then, so is the warming!
So, why is it that CO2 goes up and up and up, but there isn’t any warming since 1998? Well this is consistent with two hypotheses, both of which I think have merit, and which are not mutually exclusive. The first is that solar activity is the main cause of global warming, and the second is that El Nino and La Nina cause warming and cooling, respectively. Certainly, it seems that the monotonic rise of CO2 can’t explain everything, after all!
EDIT AGAIN: Failing to predict the lowly status of this year record wise, the Hadley Centre predicts that 2008 will be in the top ten. Which is nice for them, but not very ambitious, becuase they’ve deliberately worded it so that it is next to impossible for them to be wrong: